New Zealand is facing heightened wildfire risks as the strongest El Niño event on record is expected to influence weather patterns through 2027, according to Earth Sciences New Zealand. The agency confirmed the onset of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, which typically bring warming across the region and can trigger extreme weather worldwide.

Meteorologists forecast that this El Niño will likely surpass the severity of the 1997 event, which previously caused widespread damage including heat waves, floods, droughts, and wildfires. For New Zealand, the northern and eastern parts of the North Island are anticipated to experience drier-than-normal conditions over the coming months, particularly between July and September. The dry spell is expected to extend from the Wairarapa region northward, including areas such as Taranaki and Hawke’s Bay. In contrast, the south and west of the South Island are projected to receive above-average rainfall.

Chris Brandolino, principal scientist for forecasting and media at Earth Sciences New Zealand, cautioned that while historical El Niño patterns provide some guidance, no two events are identical. “Each comes with a unique set of climate characteristics and therefore can be expected to influence the weather differently,” he said. Along with dry conditions, increased wind activity is likely, especially around Wellington and Wairarapa. These combined conditions—windy, dry, and warm—could dry out vegetation and soil and increase the likelihood of branches and trees falling, thereby providing fuel for potential fires.

Experts highlight that El Niño does not directly cause wildfires but creates conditions conducive to their development. Shana Gross, a fire ecologist at the Bioeconomy Science Institute, noted that New Zealand’s worst wildfire season on record followed the 1997 El Niño event. She stressed the importance of public awareness during these periods to mitigate fire risks by avoiding activities that could ignite fires.

Veronica Clifford, senior technologist with the Bioeconomy Science Institute’s Wildfire Research Team, pointed out that the northern and eastern regions of both islands face the greatest probability of severe fire danger. Clifford added that the influence of a strong El Niño often becomes evident as early as November and can persist into the following April.

Troy Baisden, co-president of the Association of Scientists and adjunct professor at Victoria University of Wellington, expressed concern that this year’s potentially unprecedented El Niño event underscores the need for robust climate impact assessment and modelling. He attributed the lack of comprehensive analysis to funding cuts and the discontinuation of initiatives such as the Deep South Challenge, which focused on climate change research.

As New Zealand prepares for the coming months, experts urge vigilance and readiness to address the wildfire risk posed by this significant climate event.