Andy Burnham’s first two weeks as prime minister have been marked by a rapid and wide-ranging set of policy announcements and public appearances, reflecting a highly active start to his tenure. Addressing subjects from bus fares and business rates to energy bills, defense, Ukraine, and devolution, Burnham has sought to establish himself quickly in the role. However, a visit last week to a care home in north London underscored the challenge of maintaining public awareness, as one resident was unaware that a new prime minister had recently taken office.

Despite this, Labour MPs express cautious optimism amid what has been termed the "Burnham bounce," with recent polling indicating the party’s first lead since March 2025. Data from a large-scale multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) poll of over 10,000 voters suggests Labour’s share of voting intention rose by six points from mid-June, positioning the party at 26 percent, ahead of Reform at 23 percent. The same poll projects Labour at 245 seats, Reform at 174, Conservatives at 99, and Liberal Democrats at 67 in a scenario that would result in a hung parliament.

The polling indicates that Labour’s recovery is primarily driven by the return of progressive voters who had previously supported the Greens and Liberal Democrats in earlier elections. More than half of the 2024 Labour voters who backed those smaller progressive parties in May now say they would support Labour again. In contrast, fewer than 20 percent of former Labour voters who supported Reform have returned to the party.

Dylan Spielman, co-founder of the pollster Convergent and former lead of Labour’s data science team during the 2024 general election, noted that while Burnham has succeeded in reuniting the progressive base, the party has made less headway in winning back Reform and Conservative voters, who are crucial in marginal seats. He emphasized that sustaining Labour’s recovery will depend on the party demonstrating tangible progress on its cost-of-living agenda and expanding its appeal beyond traditional progressive voters.

Geographically, Labour’s gains are strongest in northern England, particularly Burnham’s home region of the North West, as well as Yorkshire and the Humber. However, the party’s resurgence has been limited in Wales and Scotland, where it faces stiff competition from the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru, and recently lost control of the Senedd, the Welsh parliament. Burnham plans to spend time in these regions to address these challenges.

James Baggaley of University College London’s Policy Lab highlighted that Burnham entered office as many voters outside the North West remained unfamiliar with him, presenting both an opportunity and risk. Baggaley suggested the prime minister’s early messaging, which has been more positive and hopeful than that of his predecessor Keir Starmer, has helped recapture progressive voters. Nonetheless, he noted that Burnham will face challenges addressing more divisive issues within the progressive coalition, such as welfare policy and Labour’s stance on international figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose unpopularity among potential Labour voters remains a consideration.

Labour insiders have contrasted Burnham’s entrance favorably with Starmer’s, who faced criticism for a negative tone early in his premiership and a controversial speech that some said dampened business confidence. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, an organization that conducts public opinion research, observed a genuine sense of optimism among voters in recent focus groups, particularly regarding cost-of-living measures, even though the financial relief offered has been relatively modest.

Tryl credited Burnham’s success in commanding public attention to a combination of substantive policy actions and effective communication, noting that Burnham’s approach contrasts with Starmer’s earlier negativity. Recent polling by More in Common found Burnham’s personal popularity has increased significantly to a net positive rating of +19 since assuming office, while opposition leader Nigel Farage’s approval ratings have declined substantially.

Despite this promising start, observers caution that upcoming challenges, including migrant crossings in the English Channel and controversies over welfare policy, could test Burnham’s political standing. Nevertheless, from a public opinion perspective, few doubt that the prime minister has made an effective initial impression.