Tensions within the US administration have surfaced over Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon, raising questions about the durability of ties between former President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conflict, which began as part of a broader regional confrontation involving Iran, has placed Trump and his deputy JD Vance at odds with certain elements of Israel’s far-right government.

Vance criticized some Israeli cabinet members, warning that Israel cannot rely solely on military force to resolve its national security challenges, emphasizing the country’s small population of nine million. Despite this rebuke, analysts suggest Israel is unlikely to lose its influential position in shaping American Middle East policy.

The strategic alliance between Israel’s religious right and US foreign policy has historical roots traced back to key documents that have shaped American intervention in the region. One such document, "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm," written in 1996 for Netanyahu’s first term, advocated a proactive military posture, including regime change in neighboring states such as Iraq and Syria. This paper was authored by American neoconservatives including Richard Perle, Doug Feith, and David Wurmser—all of whom later held influential positions in the George W. Bush administration during the 2003 Iraq invasion. Critics have pointed to the role of faulty intelligence and disinformation propagated by these figures in leading the US into that conflict.

Currently, a new policy blueprint titled “Israel 2048: A Blueprint for a Rising Asymmetric Geopolitical Power” is circulating in Washington and strongly influencing US strategy toward the Middle East. Co-authored by David Wurmser and Barak Seener, this paper outlines a vision for Israel to take on a dominant geopolitical role by closely integrating with Western defense systems and continuing efforts aimed at undermining Iran. It also frames Israel’s future through a Judeo-Christian lens and articulates a controversial narrative warning of “civilizational erasure” in Europe due to Muslim immigration, echoing themes embraced by some Christian nationalist supporters of Trump.

Notably, the 2026 policy paper makes no reference to the significant Palestinian civilian casualties resulting from the ongoing conflict. Reports indicate that in recent years, including the period following the October 2023 attacks inside Israel, Israeli military actions in Gaza have resulted in the deaths of at least 47,000 women and children.

The paper’s publication by a British right-wing think tank has added a degree of international legitimacy to its ideas, facilitating their uptake in US policy circles while distancing the authors from direct lobbying accusations. The implications have drawn attention to the complex interplay between ideological currents within Israel’s far-right factions and evangelical Christian groups in the United States, which remain a core part of Trump’s electoral base.

Together, these strategic and theological frameworks illustrate a continuity from "A Clean Break" through to "Israel 2048," revealing how far-right interpretations of Israel’s interests have been increasingly intertwined with American foreign policy. As the West faces demographic shifts, cultural changes, and political fragmentation, Israel is framed not only as a vital security partner but also as a spiritual symbol reinforcing nationalist and religious convictions on both sides of the Atlantic.

While Trump and his team appear eager to extricate the US from the war launched alongside Israel against Iran earlier this year, the enduring ideological and political ties between the two nations suggest that Israel’s influence over American strategy in the region remains strong and complex.