Fuel prices in the United Arab Emirates could face upward pressure in October following sustained high global oil prices throughout September, although developments in regional supply routes may help moderate the increase.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, has largely traded around $105 per barrel this week, after briefly dipping to the $97 level last week. This volatility is largely driven by uncertainty surrounding the ongoing conflict involving Iran and the impact it has on oil shipments from the Middle East, particularly through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Currently, Brent prices remain about 50 percent higher than the roughly $72 per barrel recorded in late February before tensions escalated, and nearly $40 above prices at the same time last year.
In the UAE, fuel retail prices are closely tied to international oil market trends as well as refining costs and other factors, and are adjusted monthly. While the official price setting considers overall market conditions during the month, the extended period of elevated crude prices in September increases the likelihood of a fuel price rise when the next review takes place.
To illustrate the potential impact on consumers, a 10-fills-per-litre increase would raise the cost of a typical 60-litre fuel fill by about 6 dirhams and an 80-litre fill by 8 dirhams. A 20-fills rise would approximately double those amounts. For example, under a 20-fills increase scenario, prices for Super 98 could reach 4 dirhams per litre, Special 95 around 3.89 dirhams, and E-Plus approximately 3.81 dirhams. These figures are indicative and do not represent official pricing forecasts.
Some optimism arises from the reported reactivation of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a crucial export corridor that allows crude oil to reach the Red Sea coast without transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Aramco has reportedly informed Asian refiners that crude supplies could soon be accessible from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This development could soften some supply concerns by facilitating alternative export routes, potentially stabilizing markets.
Nevertheless, considerable uncertainty remains over the direction and magnitude of fuel price adjustments in the UAE. The final decision will depend heavily on the trajectory of Brent crude prices in the remaining days of September—whether they hold near $100, decline toward the low $90s, or climb higher. Given current trends, upward pressure on fuel prices appears likely, but the precise scale of any increase will reflect international energy market dynamics as the month concludes.