In the lead-up to Israel’s upcoming elections, political dynamics are taking shape amid lingering public frustration following the October 7 attacks attributed to Hamas. Despite early calls for broad leadership change across the political and military establishment, the composition of party lists reveals that many familiar figures remain prominent, challenging the narrative of a comprehensive political reset.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who holds ultimate political responsibility as the incumbent leader during the October 7 events, continues to lead the Likud party. Other veteran politicians such as Avigdor Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid also remain significant players, while Gadi Eisenkot, former IDF chief of staff, heads the Yashar party. These leaders have been involved, with varying degrees of responsibility, in shaping policies preceding the recent conflict.
New parties have emerged, often featuring individuals with personal or military ties to the recent crisis, but senior figures typically occupy the top of these lists. A notable exception is Ofer Winter, a former IDF brigadier-general and military secretary to Liberman, who launched the People of Israel (POI) party in Jerusalem. Winter’s list includes survivors of the October 7 attacks, bereaved families, and civil society leaders, including Arab-Israeli activist Yoseph Haddad and Naftali Derai, who lost her son in Gaza.
Winter and his collaborators emphasize a break from the past, arguing that established experience contributed to Israel’s security lapses and that fresh leadership is needed. “We have already seen where that experience has led us,” Winter stated at the party launch. His right-wing platform aims to establish a broad Zionist government but notably stops short of endorsing Netanyahu as prime minister.
Polls present divergent views on Winter’s potential influence. While some surveys place POI below the electoral threshold, others project between six and eight seats, suggesting it could become a pivotal actor. Netanyahu, however, has expressed concern that Winter’s party, along with other small right-wing factions such as Zehut and Noam, risks fragmenting the vote, potentially weakening the broader right-wing bloc.
Netanyahu’s warnings about vote dilution draw on historical precedents, notably the 1992 and April 2019 elections, where right-leaning parties failed to cross the threshold and their votes were effectively lost, impacting the overall balance of power. Since 2019, Netanyahu has sought to consolidate the right-wing vote by encouraging mergers and joint lists, a strategy aimed at minimizing vote wastage among smaller parties.
Yet, the post-October 7 political environment presents new challenges. Public appetite for “a clean sweep” and fresh faces stands in tension with fears that untested leadership may risk further instability. Winter’s emergence underscores this clash: he offers appeal as a candidate unassociated with prior failings, while Netanyahu emphasizes experience and strategic voting as safeguards.
With the election two months away, uncertainty remains over whether voters will prioritize continuity to avoid fragmenting the right-wing bloc or embrace Winter’s call for change. The outcome will be closely watched as Israel navigates this critical political moment.