Winter likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, October 18, 2026

NOAA and meteorologists forecast a warmer and wetter winter across much of the United States due to a strong El Niño event influencing temperature and precipitation patterns. This shift could help alleviate drought in the West but also likely reduce snowfall in northern regions, marking a continuation of rising winter temperatures linked to climate change.

Winter across the United States is expected to be generally warmer and wetter than average, according to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other meteorologists. The driving factor behind these conditions is a strong El Niño event, a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences global weather patterns.

El Niño typically raises temperatures worldwide while redistributing precipitation. This year’s event is forecast to bring increased moisture to many regions, potentially easing prolonged drought conditions in the Western United States. However, the warming influence of El Niño is anticipated to limit snowfall, particularly in northern parts of the country.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook indicates that much of the northern U.S., including the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Northern Rockies, will likely see below-normal snow levels. In contrast, areas such as the Southern Rockies, parts of the Southeast, and Southwest may experience above-average snowfall. AccuWeather projects Salt Lake City will be the only major metropolitan area to receive more snow than usual, while cities like Chicago, Boston, New York, and Philadelphia could see roughly half or less of their typical winter snowfall.

Temperature-wise, forecasts show that portions or all of 41 of the contiguous states are expected to be warmer than normal. No regions are predicted to experience below-average temperatures, with Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi expected to have near-normal temperatures. States including Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska face an equal chance of warmer, cooler, or average conditions.

This outlook is set against a backdrop of rising winter temperatures in the U.S. over recent decades. NOAA notes that average winter temperatures have increased by around 4 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 50 years, a trend largely attributed to human-induced climate change.

While seasonal snowfall forecasts remain uncertain, the influence of the strong El Niño event provides forecasters with greater confidence in these temperature and precipitation projections. As always, residents are advised to stay informed through local forecasts as conditions evolve throughout the winter season.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.