As the winter travel season approaches, travelers are facing significantly higher airfares, largely driven by elevated crude oil and aviation fuel prices. Data from a recent analysis shows that global airfares increased by 12.3 percent year-over-year, with the average cost of a flight rising from $399 (RO 153) in September 2025 to $448 (RO 172) in September 2026. October fares have also climbed, averaging $453 (RO 174) compared to $412 (RO 158) a year earlier.
The sharp rise in ticket prices is closely tied to aviation fuel costs, which constitute roughly 40 percent of an airline’s operating expenses. Fuel prices have more than doubled since early 2026, having traded below $90 per barrel in February before surging past $200 in April and May. Throughout September and October, fuel prices remained elevated between $185 and $194 per barrel.
In Oman, the impact is notably felt on routes to India, where major carriers including IndiGo, Air India, and Air India Express have increased fuel surcharges this month. The surcharge now stands at Rs 5,500 for flights to Southeast Asia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Middle East, and parts of Asia, translating to an additional cost of nearly RO 22 per ticket at current exchange rates. The limited competition in this market segment has exacerbated fares for travelers.
Muscat International Airport recorded an 8.2 percent decline in both international arrivals and departures during the first nine months of 2026 compared to the same period last year, reflecting subdued travel demand amid rising costs. Monthly fare increases have fluctuated over the year, peaking at 25.8 percent above 2025 levels in March, easing in April, surging again in May, and falling to a low of 7.7 percent in July following a brief diplomatic easing between the United States and Iran.
Industry analysts suggest that the months ahead will indicate how travelers adjust their plans in response to constrained purchasing power and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice-President for Sustainability and Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), emphasized that shifts in travel behavior will depend largely on economic pressures and global political developments.
Airfare reductions typically occur in response to decreased demand, increased competition, or promotional discounts, though none have sufficiently offset rising fuel costs this year. Travel advisory services recommend that consumers monitor fare fluctuations closely using dynamic pricing tools that airlines employ. Prices can change rapidly based on seat availability and booking pace. For those with fixed travel dates and budgets, experts advise booking as early as possible to avoid potential price increases, since waiting does not guarantee lower fares.