The number of young people aged 16 to 24 who are not in work, education, or training (NEET) could rise to 1.25 million within the next five years, according to a new report commissioned by the UK government. Currently, around 957,000 young people—approximately one in eight in this age group—are classified as NEET, but this figure is projected to increase to one in six by 2031.

The report, compiled by former Labour minister Alan Milburn, highlights an escalating youth inactivity crisis and warns of long-term consequences for both individuals and the wider economy. Milburn attributed the issue to systemic failures, rather than shortcomings on the part of young people themselves. He argued that outdated education, health, and welfare systems are not equipped to support young people’s transition into the labour market.

“This is not a failure of young people – it is a failure of a system stuck in the past,” Milburn said. He emphasized that the current framework risks consigning a growing segment of youth to lives dependent on benefits rather than employment.

The findings come amid broader concerns over youth unemployment and engagement, which have intensified following economic disruptions and challenges linked to recent global events. The report calls for urgent reforms to address these systemic barriers and improve pathways into sustainable employment and training opportunities for young people.

While the projection underscores the urgency of the situation, government officials have not yet outlined detailed responses to the report’s recommendations. The evolving landscape of education and employment support remains a focal point for policymakers aiming to reduce youth disengagement and promote economic inclusion.