Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are falling significantly short of the targets established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to a report released Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The findings highlight a widening gap between stated climate ambitions and the concrete actions required to curb warming and prevent catastrophic environmental consequences.
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report projects that even if all current national pledges are fully implemented, the world is on track for a temperature increase of approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This forecast exceeds the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius while striving to keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report states that the opportunity to remain within the 1.5-degree limit is effectively lost due to decades of insufficient climate action.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that the world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5-degree threshold and that the resulting impacts are already causing significant harm. Despite the increasing threats from extreme weather and environmental degradation, the report finds that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remain comparable to the record highs observed in 2024. In particular, carbon emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and gas, which are the primary contributors to climate change, have risen slightly from the previous year.
Guterres called for immediate and extensive emission reductions, warning that present national policies and plans are insufficient to meet that need. UNEP Executive Secretary Inger Andersen echoed the call for action, noting that the responsibility to phase down carbon emissions rests with all countries, especially those in the Group of Twenty (G20).
The report points to the formal withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement as a factor contributing to the worsening outlook compared to last year. Preliminary data for 2025 show that emissions rose in the United States, China, and Indonesia, while India, Russia, and the European Union recorded decreases. Notably, the U.S. saw an increase of 133 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, driven by greater electricity demand and a resurgence in coal-fired power generation.
To help limit temperature increases beyond 1.5 degrees, Andersen stressed the urgent need to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy, calling for an addition of 5,000 gigawatts over the next five years. The report underscores that bridging the emissions gap requires immediate global cooperation and enhanced climate commitments ahead of the upcoming COP31 summit scheduled for November.