A new book by veteran author Annie Jacobsen explores the potential consequences of a large-scale biological attack on the United States, depicting a scenario in which a genetically engineered plague unleashes widespread chaos and societal collapse. Although the narrative is fictional, it is grounded in extensive interviews with former government officials and experts, raising concerns about the realistic risks posed by advances in biological warfare.

In the book, “Biological War: A Scenario,” Jacobsen draws on conversations with more than 50 specialists, including a senator, a former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administrator, and senior members of the National Security Council and State Department. The story unfolds with a plague designed to spread stealthily through a neurochemical modification that induces euphoria, causing infected individuals to unknowingly facilitate transmission before symptoms appear. This concept, Jacobsen notes, is based on Soviet-era experiments that incorporated endorphin genes into the plague bacterium.

The fictional outbreak leads to severe societal breakdown: violent confrontations erupt as communities descend into fear and paranoia, and the federal government swiftly moves to a crisis mode described as “Devolution,” signaling the effective end of structured national governance. Within the scenario, the president issues a Warning Order (WARNORD) directing the military to prepare for domestic interventions—a step that echoes a real directive signed by former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Experts cited in the book emphasize the limited options available in responding to such an attack. Retired Air Force colonel Dr. Thomas Ehrhard notes the absence of effective homeland defense measures, likening a biological assault to nuclear war in its potential for devastation without viable countermeasures. British former intelligence officer Dr. Christopher Davis underscores the intent behind biological weapons: “You do not choose plague as a battlefield weapon... You choose plague because you’re going to take out the other person’s country.”

Despite the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) of 1972, which prohibits developing and stockpiling biological and toxin weapons, Jacobsen outlines how loopholes and lack of enforcement have allowed countries to maintain stockpiles under the guise of “defensive” research. She points to a growing global “biotechnical arms race,” fueled by concerns over terrorism as well as commercial interests involving defense contractors and biotech firms. The book also highlights a troubling disparity: while Russia reportedly possesses a vaccine against plague, the United States does not.

Jacobsen further references a 2000 federal exercise simulating a pneumonic plague release at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts. Participants in this live-action scenario quickly found themselves overwhelmed as infections spread rapidly, mirroring real disease transmission rates. The simulation ended when the local healthcare system faced collapse, and officials reported exhaustion and despair, reinforcing the grim challenges of managing such outbreaks.

The author’s investigation paints a stark picture of how biological warfare could destabilize the U.S. and global order, offering a sober reflection on the vulnerabilities embedded within current national security and public health frameworks.