Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this weekend, marking their first face-to-face meeting since deadly border clashes between their countries in 2020. The visit comes after several years of cautious diplomatic efforts aimed at easing longstanding tensions between the two most populous nations.
The 2020 confrontations along their disputed Himalayan border resulted in at least 20 Indian fatalities and an unspecified number of Chinese casualties, severely straining political communication and economic engagement. Following the clashes, bilateral trade and investment declined, and diplomatic dialogue faltered. However, recent years have seen attempts to rebuild ties, with Xi and Modi engaging in talks at regional forums in locations such as Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and China.
This weekend’s visit coincides with the upcoming BRICS summit in New Delhi, which will be Xi’s first trip to India in seven years. Analysts regard multilateral platforms like BRICS as crucial venues for managing the strategic distrust and unresolved issues between China and India. According to Pradeep Dondi, a senior analyst with Crisis Group, these gatherings provide an opportunity to navigate the complex structural differences underpinning the relationship.
Officials from both sides, including Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian security adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, have been gradually re-engaging. This year saw the first bilateral trade talks since 2019, and New Delhi authorized two major state-owned enterprises to procure critical components from China, reversing restrictions imposed in the aftermath of the 2020 clashes.
Trade between China and India reached a record $155 billion last year, a 12.4% increase over 2022 and more than double the figure from a decade earlier. In the first seven months of 2024, trade climbed an additional 23%. Investment activity has also revived, with Chinese firms in sectors like technology and energy exploring opportunities in India. Notable examples include cleantech developer Envision, Geely-backed engine supplier Horse Powertrain, and battery manufacturer CosMX. In March, the Indian government eased investment screening rules, granting automatic approval for Chinese investments involving non-controlling stakes up to 10% in Indian companies, particularly in solar energy and electronics.
Efforts to normalize relations extend beyond economic measures. India and China agreed earlier this year to resume patrols along their 3,500-kilometer shared border, suspended since 2020. Direct flights restarted last year after a four-year hiatus, border trade reopened at three Himalayan crossings, and the two countries jointly organized a Hindu and Buddhist pilgrimage to sacred sites in Tibet.
Observers describe these developments as a cautious re-engagement that blends competition with cooperation, reflecting a historic pattern of regional rivalry. Amitabh Kant, a former Indian government official, noted that while the process of rebuilding trust is slow, Modi has invested substantial political capital in improving relations.
The détente has emerged in the context of shifting geopolitical dynamics, including the evolving foreign policy of the United States under President Joe Biden’s administration and earlier during Donald Trump’s tenure. China appears intent on drawing India away from closer alignment with Washington, viewing India both as a significant market for its slowing economy and as a strategic partner whose choices could reshape regional order.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said Beijing seeks to influence India’s strategic orientation to avoid default alliances with the United States and reduce perceptions of China as a threat.
Chinese state media commentary following recent India-China talks highlighted a mutual acknowledgment of U.S. influence in their bilateral relationship. Ding Gang, a commentator for the People’s Daily, suggested that this influence is diminishing, attributing the shift to broader changes in the international order rather than solely diplomatic effort.