Yemen’s long-standing civil conflict has escalated sharply in recent months, spreading to critical maritime routes and key Saudi Arabian infrastructure, raising concerns about regional stability.

The conflict reignited this summer following a Saudi airstrike on the runway of Sana’a airport, controlled by the Houthi movement, aimed at preventing an Iranian-owned plane carrying Yemenis from landing. While Saudi Arabia allowed a charter plane to land, it opposed the Iranian-operated flight, which was eventually redirected to the port of Hodeidah on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. The Houthis condemned the strike as part of a broader Saudi siege and responded by announcing a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and launching missile attacks on the kingdom’s oil facilities. This marked the end of a ceasefire that had been in place since 2022.

In mid-September, the Houthis intensified their campaign by advancing southward along the Red Sea coast, focusing on the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical chokepoint for global maritime traffic. By September 16, they had captured the town of Mocha, several islands in the strait, and an airport, extending their control to mountainous areas near Taiz governorate, including the city of Taiz itself—home to Rashad al-Alimi, president of Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

The successes of the Houthi advance are attributed to a combination of factors. Analysts cite divisions and poor coordination within the UN-recognized government’s forces, as well as the lack of effective military intelligence compared to the better-supported Houthis. While Iranian backing has bolstered Houthi capabilities, their campaign stems from longstanding political and religious opposition to Saudi influence in Yemen rather than acting solely as proxies.

In response, Yemeni government forces, supported by an air campaign involving around 100 Saudi jets, launched a counteroffensive called Operation Yemen Dawn aimed at reclaiming territory lost to the Houthis, including attempts to retake the Bab al-Mandab area. Fighting is ongoing across multiple fronts, including the mountainous regions west of Taiz, Marib, and the capital Sana’a. Meanwhile, the Houthis have continued missile strikes targeting at least five Saudi cities. However, the extent of Houthi setbacks may have been overstated.

The relationship between the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia remains complex and heavily intertwined. Saudi Arabia shares a long, disputed border with Yemen and has been a major economic supporter of the Yemeni administration, providing up to $12.6 billion in aid over the past 14 years. As a result, much of Yemen’s political leadership resides in Saudi cities, leading critics to label the government as reliant on Saudi patronage.

Internally, the anti-Houthi forces in Yemen are fragmented along tribal, regional, and political lines. The Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking an independent southern state, is slated to launch a popular mobilization on October 23, testing the influence of its leader Aidarous al-Zubeidi, currently in exile after being charged with treason by the Yemeni government. The STC and other southern militias have substantial roles in the ongoing fighting despite differing political aims.

The United Arab Emirates, a former key participant in the anti-Houthi coalition, withdrew its forces in January 2026 but continues to back southern separatists and oppose the Islamist Islah party, which it views as affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. This has fueled a cautious alliance with Saudi Arabia amid ongoing rivalry and suspicion.

The United States has maintained a low profile in the renewed conflict, focused on other regional engagements and reluctant to become further involved. After a brief bombing campaign against the Houthis in spring 2025, Washington brokered a ceasefire excluding Israel and has declined Saudi requests for increased intervention in safeguarding the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Other international actors have contributed indirectly, with European countries providing air refueling for Saudi jets. A new defense pact signed in August 2026 between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan aims to address broader Gulf security concerns, though its direct impact on Yemen is uncertain. Pakistan is reportedly supplying weapons to forces in Aden.

The future trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia faces significant challenges, including vulnerabilities in its energy infrastructure, as demonstrated by attacks on critical pipelines. The Houthis have demonstrated effective combat capabilities over the past two decades, but Yemen’s evolving role within a broader regional and international conflict introduces new complexities that defy easy predictions.