Food prices in Canada and globally are poised to rise further amid a combination of climatic and geopolitical pressures, according to recent economic data and expert analyses. Inflation figures released on Monday show that grocery costs in stores increased by 4.3 percent over the past year, outpacing the 3.1 percent rise seen in non-food items. This trend is expected to accelerate due to the onset of a powerful El Niño event intertwined with ongoing climate change challenges and international market disruptions.

Meteorological agencies worldwide have identified this year’s El Niño—often referred to as a “Super El Niño”—as one of the strongest on record, predicted to last through spring 2027. The phenomenon is expected to drive unusually high temperatures across much of the globe, alongside heightened risks of drought, storms, flooding, and heatwaves. Europe is already experiencing extreme heatwaves, with temperatures reaching or surpassing 40 degrees Celsius in several areas.

The El Niño event compounds the long-term warming trend from climate change, which has increased baseline temperatures and amplified weather volatility. Currently, approximately 25 percent of Canada and half of the United States face drought or abnormal dryness. These factors pose significant threats to global agriculture by reducing crop yields and harming livestock productivity. Research indicates crop yields decline by six to 10 percent for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature, even without drought conditions. Heatwaves linked to El Niño can cut yields by half, particularly when temperatures rise above critical thresholds for various crops and animals.

Heat stress impacts livestock health starting at 25 degrees Celsius, with documented mortality rates among dairy and beef cattle reaching 10 to 24 percent during severe heatwaves. Marine ecosystems are also affected, with mass die-offs reported among wild and farmed fish and shellfish due to rising ocean temperatures.

Canada’s recent experience with extreme heat and drought offers a stark example of El Niño’s potential impact. The 2021 British Columbia heatwave, which climate change made substantially more likely, resulted in 619 heat-related deaths and contributed to widespread wildfires. Agricultural losses were severe: poultry deaths soared to 660,000, egg production fell by up to 70 percent, and shellfish farms lost up to 70 percent of their stocks in some regions. Fruit harvests declined sharply, with raspberries falling by more than 50 percent and other fruits dropping 20 to 30 percent. Vegetable production also suffered, including a 59 percent decrease in broccoli yields, exacerbated by unsafe greenhouse conditions. Prolonged drought conditions in western North America have similarly led to a reduction in cattle herds to historic lows and triggered steep increases in beef prices, with striploin prices climbing 77 percent over two years.

Because Canada imports roughly half of its vegetables and three-quarters of its fruits—much of it sourced from the drought-prone U.S. West Coast and Central America—these international climate impacts will further strain domestic food availability and prices. The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations has flagged Central America as facing high drought risk during key planting periods, while parts of Asia are projected to see significant declines in rice production.

Complicating the picture, geopolitical tensions—most notably the ongoing conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have disrupted commodity markets that supply fertilizer, fuel, and shipping services. These disruptions have elevated costs for essential agricultural inputs and are expected to impede supply chains well into 2027, even under optimistic scenarios. Reduced fertilizer use alone could produce notable drops in crop yields.

The convergence of intensified El Niño conditions, entrenched climate change effects, and commodity market shocks is putting considerable upward pressure on food prices worldwide. Experts emphasize that addressing these challenges requires urgent and collective climate action to stabilize agricultural productivity and protect living standards.