Sri Lanka is experiencing a notable demographic shift, with a decline in its youth population accompanied by a rise in the elderly, according to recent data from the Census and Statistics Department. The population and housing report released in early 2026 highlights that the number of children aged 14 and under has decreased by 4.5%, while those aged 60 and above now constitute 18% of the population, up from 12% in 2012.
Despite this, the overall population of the island remains steady at approximately 21.7 million. The decline in the child population—from 25.2% in 2012 to 20.7% in 2024—means there are currently about 87 elderly individuals for every 100 children under 15. Experts warn this trend could significantly reduce the size of the workforce in the coming years.
Sri Lanka’s total fertility rate is below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, a key measure to maintain population stability. Factors contributing to lower birth rates include delayed childbearing driven by increased female participation in higher education and careers, shifts in lifestyle preferences, rising living and housing costs, and social changes such as increased divorce rates, cohabitation, voluntary childlessness, and remaining single. Labor migration also influences these demographic trends.
Several countries that have faced similar demographic challenges have implemented policies such as child-related financial incentives, expanded maternity leave, and flexible work arrangements. However, Sri Lanka has struggled to respond effectively, partly due to the absence of comprehensive census data caused by disruptions in 2012 related to the civil war and again in 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has urged Sri Lanka to build resilience in managing these demographic changes. Through its “domestic resilience” initiative, UNFPA offers support in data collection, policy formulation, and strategic planning to address issues including low fertility and migration.
Economist and Advocata CEO Dhananath Fernando emphasized that incentives alone are insufficient and unaffordable in the Sri Lankan context. Instead, he advocates for lowering living costs, particularly housing, to enhance affordability for families. He also highlighted the readiness of the country’s large pool of graduates—about 1.8 million—to enter the workforce, noting that they are well-prepared with digital skills but face significant unemployment, currently at 43%. Fernando called for creating equitable opportunities and expanding sectors like port and shipping, services, tourism, and renewable energy to absorb this talent.
Meanwhile, economist Professor Sirmal Abeyratne described the aging population as a global phenomenon and suggested that older adults can still contribute productively to the economy. He proposed selective retirement extensions and increased immigration as possible strategies to mitigate workforce shortages.
Supporting this view, a 2026 research paper by the Institute of Policy Studies highlighted the potential economic contributions of healthy individuals aged 60 and above. The report recommends legislative actions to create employment and economic opportunities for those willing and able to continue working.
The Census and Statistics Department, responsible for data collection and dissemination, has completed its preliminary analysis of the 2024 census data and shared findings with relevant ministries, including the Health Ministry. Director General Shamali Karunaratne noted ongoing collaboration with UNFPA to ensure accurate data interpretation, which will support policymaking in response to these demographic trends.