Ukraine has intensified its rhetoric toward Belarus amid growing concerns over Minsk's cooperation with Moscow in the ongoing conflict between Kyiv and Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky sharply criticized Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko this month, accusing Belarus of facilitating Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian territory by hosting relay stations that guide the drones’ flight paths.

Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Belarus has allowed Russian forces to operate across its territory, providing critical airspace and logistical support. Until recently, Zelensky had avoided overtly confronting Lukashenko, but his administration’s tone shifted in June with a direct demand for Belarus to dismantle these communication sites. Zelensky warned that unless Lukashenko complied, Ukraine would take matters into its own hands.

The broadcast relay stations in question reportedly use existing infrastructure, such as television and mobile phone masts, to transmit controlling signals to Russian Shahed drones. Ukrainian defense officials claim that while drones previously operated on pre-set coordinates, the addition of Belarus-based transmitters allows Russian operators to adjust drone trajectories mid-flight, increasing the effectiveness of attacks. Serhii Beskrestnov, a technical adviser to Ukraine’s defense ministry, highlighted that these relay points not only transmit signals but also amplify and repeat them, enhancing drone control.

Belarusian authorities appeared to respond cautiously to Kyiv’s warnings. Following Zelensky’s public statements threatening strikes against the relay stations, Ukrainian border guards noted a reduction in Russian drone activity near the northern Chernihiv region adjacent to Belarus. Reports indicate that the contested relay stations on Belarusian soil have gone offline, suggesting Minsk opted to de-escalate rather than provoke direct conflict with its neighbor.

Experts analyzing the situation emphasize the complex balancing act faced by Lukashenko. Although Belarus remains a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Minsk is wary of becoming ensnared in a wider war with Ukraine. Balazs Jarabik, a former Slovak diplomat and Eastern Europe specialist, noted that Belarus hopes to preserve its sovereignty and avoid Russian troop deployments on its soil, despite relying on Moscow for military and nuclear protection. Jarabik also observed that Belarusian industries and infrastructure would be particularly vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, providing a deterrent against further escalation.

Jarabik characterized Kyiv’s recent shift toward a more assertive posture with Belarus as reflecting Ukraine’s growing confidence as a regional power. Ukraine’s capacity for mid- and long-range strikes into Russian-held territory has bolstered its strategic standing. Zelensky’s recent diplomatic moves—such as rejecting Lukashenko’s offer of a summit and instead inviting exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to Kyiv—underscore a broader effort to counter Russian influence in the region. Both Lukashenko’s regime and Tsikhanouskaya share an interest in preventing Belarus from becoming a bargaining chip in Russia’s war ambitions, a sentiment Jarabik summarized as opposition to Belarus being "a consolation prize for Putin" should his invasion of Ukraine fail.

The dynamics between Kyiv, Minsk, and Moscow remain fluid as Ukraine balances military pressure with diplomatic efforts, while Belarus seeks to maintain its alliance with Russia without becoming a direct combatant in the conflict.