Governments across several European countries have issued public guidance encouraging citizens to prepare for potential crises by storing essential supplies such as food and water. Sweden recently distributed brochures advising residents to keep at least a week’s reserve in case of war or other emergencies, with similar instructions extended to Norway, Denmark, Finland, and available online in the United Kingdom. The move reflects growing concerns not only about geopolitical tensions, including Russian aggression, but also about rising threats from cyberattacks and extreme weather events.
Beyond material preparations, experts emphasize the importance of social cohesion during crises. However, societal trust appears to be eroding amid increasing perceptions of competition and scarcity. Contemporary public discourse frequently reflects "zero-sum" thinking—the belief that one group’s gain necessarily comes at the expense of another. This mindset is evident in popular narratives suggesting that immigrants displace native workers, the affluent enrich themselves at others’ cost, or that expanding employment opportunities for women harms men’s job prospects.
Such perspectives suggest a fixed and limited pool of opportunities, conveying a sense of inevitable losers in social and economic interactions. This outlook contrasts with "positive-sum" approaches, which embrace the possibility that prosperity can be expanded through innovation and cooperation. Recent analyses have shown a sharp rise in zero-sum language usage since the 1990s, particularly among younger generations.
Research by economists Stefanie Stantcheva and Sahil Chinoy indicates that Millennials and Generation Z in the United States are notably more inclined than previous generations to perceive the world as a zero-sum landscape. This viewpoint extends beyond lower-income groups, with even higher earners and postgraduate individuals expressing grievances consistent with fixed-resource thinking. Urban residents, especially in large cities such as New York, also exhibit greater zero-sum tendencies, which experts link to heightened competition for jobs, education, and housing. Older adults generally maintain a more expansive economic outlook, though exceptions exist, such as former President Donald Trump’s zero-sum trade policies and their impact on American consumers.
The persistence of slow economic growth following the 2008 financial crisis, along with increased uncertainty regarding employment security and housing affordability, contributes to this worldview. Studies show that beliefs in limited social mobility can become self-fulfilling, affecting expectations about merit and rewards in competitive environments. For example, a recent experiment at the University of Chicago found that young participants often assumed employee evaluations to be strictly comparative rather than based on absolute performance.
The post-World War II global order was predicated on the notion that expanding interdependence would generate shared prosperity, an assumption that held true for decades. However, recent trends suggest that the benefits of globalization have not been evenly distributed, heightening perceptions of inequality. Additional pressures on social systems, such as pension strains in aging Western populations, amplify feelings of competition, especially as a shrinking workforce supports a growing number of retirees. Housing supply constraints, particularly due to restrictive planning policies in major cities, further exacerbate economic tensions.
Surveys spanning 37 countries reveal a correlation between zero-sum beliefs and increased cynicism toward institutions, lower volunteering rates, and diminished trust in social cooperation. Economists note that such attitudes often coincide with greater support for government redistribution and immigration restrictions, cutting across political divides but potentially reinforcing state expansion without resolving underlying economic challenges.
Addressing these issues requires policymakers to foster confidence in growth and cooperation rather than resorting to divisive rhetoric. Effective strategies could include developing affordable housing that integrates well into communities, implementing climate policies that also create jobs, and promoting entrepreneurship to retain talent. As public trust in leaders and institutions declines amid widespread skepticism about fairness—highlighted by surveys like the Edelman Trust Barometer—building a shared sense of agency and mutual support becomes increasingly urgent.
Official communications, such as Sweden’s emphasis on collective assistance during emergencies and the UK’s focus on identifying vulnerable individuals for priority services, underscore the need for solidarity in crises. Yet, experts caution that these efforts may fall short if underlying social trust continues to deteriorate, risking a future marked by economic stagnation and weakened social fabric.